Issue date: 2026-01-10T18:25+00:00
An atmospheric river with multiple surges of moisture has moved into the panhandle and is possible to last into Sunday evening. Currently, convective rain showers are moving into the panhandle bringing localized moderate to heavy rain with breaks in between. Additional rainfall amounts from Friday night through Saturday night with ranges of around 0.75 to 1.5 inches before the next surge of moisture late night. Due to the localized nature of these showers, some areas may receive more rain accumulations than expected. For the northern inner channels, still expecting the deep sea level snowpack to absorb most rainfall from these incoming showers and produce minimal runoff. Therefore, the main hazard of concern is snow, ice, or other debris potentially blocking storm drains and allowing for ponding of rain and snowmelt in areas that they normally would not collect, such as roadways or walkways. Another surge of moisture is expected for the southern half of the panhandle overnight Saturday and continuing through Sunday. Very strong rain rates during the morning hours for the Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Prince of Wales Island, with around a 40-60% chance for 3 hour rates exceeding 0.4 inches. This surge in precipitation may coincide with another surge of wind gusts, with sea level gusts possibly reaching as high as 50 mph. The southern panhandle could see 1.5 to 3.0 additional inches, the central inner channels could receive 1.0 to 2.0 additional inches, the Icy Strait corridor could receive 0.75 to 1.5 additional inches, and the Juneau area could receive 1.5 to 2.5 additional inches. * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be possible. * WHERE...The following areas, Prince of Wales, Eastern Gulf Coast, Southern Inner Channels and Central Inner Channels. This includes the cities of Petersburg, Kake, Port Alexander, Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg, Coffman Cove, Thorne Bay, Wrangell, Ketchikan, Hyder, And Metlakatla. * WHEN...Through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, other low-lying areas and flood-prone locations. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Around 2.5 to 5.5 inches of rain has fallen for Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla. Around 1.5 to 3.0 inches has fallen for Petersburg and Wrangell. Around 0.75 to 1.5 inches with possibly locally higher amounts, particularly near Ketchikan and Metlakatla, of rain is expected through Saturday evening before the incoming surge of moisture. On Sunday, 1.0 to 2.0 inches of rain for the central panhandle and 1.5 to 3.0 for the extreme southern panhandle is possible. Areas with a pre-existing snowpack, both from recent accumulations as well as the deep, previous snowpack, may have additional runoff. Small streams and rivers are falling, but are expected to rise again Sunday. There is continued uncertainty for exceedence of flood stage based on how the snowpack at upper elevations will respond to the incoming rain. Ward Creek above Lake Connell Dam is currently experiencing minor flooding. Otherwise, current forecast reflects these rivers saying within their banks, however, uncertainty in snowpack depth, temperature, and runoff potential could lead to minor flooding. Gusty winds at sea level ranging from 40 to 60 mph are likely along the southern panhandle through Friday night. This combination of weather hazards could lead to possible isolated landslides along steep slopes. Conditions for the possibility of flooding and possible isolated landslides going forward will be maximized Sunday morning as the heaviest rates and wind gusts up to 50 mph at sea level. This combination of factors, along with accumulation from the expected rain for today and Saturday. Additionally, stream flows in rivers may quickly rise and may exceed flood levels.
Issue date: 2026-01-10T17:38+00:00
Yesterday's atmospheric river has moved out of the area. there currently is a brief lull affecting the area with occasional convective rain showers. However, another surge of moisture and moderate to heavy rain is expected to move in Saturday night and last into Sunday. * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues. * WHERE...Ward Lake near areas near the Ward Lake recreational area. * WHEN...Until 600 PM AKST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 833 AM AKST, Rapid snowmelt is also occurring and will combine with rain to cause minor flooding. Minor flooding is ongoing, especially near Ward Lake. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain has fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are possible through Saturday afternoon. Another round of heavier rainfall expected Saturday night moving into Sunday with additional rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3.5 inches. - For Lake Connell Dam: At 8:30am the stage was 252.5 feet. Flood Stage is 252 feet. Impacts: At 251 feet: Water will begin to approach low lying areas of trails and picnic areas around Ward Lake. At 252 feet: 2 feet of water will be going over the emergency spillway which will produce minor flooding of areas around the Ward Lake recreation area with trails and Last Chance campground being inundated. At 254.0 feet: Moderate flooding will occur around the Ward Lake recreation area with significant flooding of campgrounds and trails. Water will be over the road near the bridge across Ward Creek with possible debris impacting the bridge.